Twitter Advice For President Trump: A Statistical Adventure

We all hate Trump’s tweets, but he’s out there just tryna get some faves like the rest of us. I’ve always assumed he tweets only for the dopamine rush of a new notification — he can’t possibly mean the things he says. If Trump is just a regular Joe looking to up his fave-count, I’m here to help.

I looked at the most commonly used words in Trump’s tweets from 2017. I had a data set of 1554 tweets. Trump tweeted more than 1554 times in 2017, but some were just pictures or hashtags, and some of his tweets had a NULL text value in the data set for reasons I was too lazy to investigate.

Unfortunately, the data set doesn’t include all deleted tweets, although I would be honered to learn how some of Trump’s interesting spelling choices affect tweet popularity. To bad there’s not a lot of press covfefe on that — it’s really an unpresidented phenomenon #Denmakr.

With the tweets I did have, I found some trends. For one thing, there are certain words (‘no,’ ‘now,’ ‘great,’ ‘America,’ and ‘thank’) that Trump alternates between tweeting in all caps and tweeting lower case. I looked at the fave-count and the retweet-count by whether or not he capitalized these words, wrote them like a normal human being and/or elementary school child, or excluded them from the tweet. I don’t include the graphs for retweets here because the trends are similar to that of faves.

The results are pretty obvious. Trump gets more ‘faves’ on tweets that have ‘Thank,’ ‘America,’ and ‘Great’ in all caps. I’m not an expert or anything (I’m only slightly more qualified to be President of the United States than the current guy), but I’d say Trump needs to get to tweeting ‘GREAT’ if he wants to up those like-counts.

However, the results shift for ‘no’ and ‘now.’ His tweets with NO in all caps get similar likes to ‘no’ lowercase. This just goes to show — no matter how you write it, ‘no’ means ‘no.’ He only time no doesn’t mean no is when Trump is telling us that he nos everything there is to no about being president.

His tweets with ‘NOW’ in all caps actually do worse than ‘now.’ If I had to guess why, it’d say it’s because people do not like being rushed amiright?!?! (I’m not right). Also, he often writes ‘NOW’ when telling Senators to end a filibuster, and I assume filibuster is too big of a word for his supporters to understand, so they opt-out of liking the tweet.

Ok, next up I looked at how certain words affect the popularity of Trump’s tweets. I graphed his fave-count by whether or not the tweet contains a few of these words

His tweets with the word ‘Hillary’ in them do significantly better than those without Hillary. I assume he’s referring to ‘Hillary Clinton,’ but he might just be misspelling ‘Hilary Duff.’ Hey, once again, I’m not an expert.

Trump’s tweets with the word ‘Russia’ in them get more faves than tweets without ‘Russia.’ I don’t know if this can be used in this investigation into Russian collusion in the 2016 election, but it probably can. This is an extremely scientific analysis.

And now (NOW) we get to the most significant result of all. Trump’s tweets with the word ‘@foxandfriends’ get close to ⅓ as many likes as those without ‘@foxandfriends.’ This is a huge result — Trump, if you want to up your like count, you’ have GOT to stop talking to the Fox and Friends people on Twitter! Send them a snap or something, but do NOT tweet at them. Anytime you’re considering tweeting at them, look at this graph, and eat a brownie instead. That’s how I quit smoking. Fox and Friends? More like Fox and BAD Friends!

That’s about it for my recommendations for Trump. I think if he takes this advice into consideration, he should expect to get more ‘faves’ in 2018. If someone could also give him some recommendations on how to quit being president that would be helpful as well. Happy to collaborate.

To contact the author of the post with queries about her statistical methods, don’t.


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